Singapore HDB Resale: Slowest Price Growth Since 2019 Signifies Market Rebalancing
Singapore’s public housing market, a cornerstone for the majority of its citizens, recorded its slowest price growth in six years during 2025, a significant development that points towards increased stability and affordability. Flash estimates from the Housing & Development Board (HDB) reveal that HDB resale flat prices rose by a modest 2.9 percent in 2025, a stark contrast to the 9.7 percent increase observed in 2024. This marks the weakest annual price growth since 2019, when the market saw a mere 0.1 percent uptick.
The fourth quarter of 2025 notably saw HDB resale prices remain flat, marking the first time prices were unchanged since the first quarter of 2020. This plateau follows three consecutive quarters of price growth below 1 percent, underscoring a consistent moderation in the market. This slowdown is largely attributed to a confluence of factors, including robust housing supply, stringent cooling measures, and evolving buyer sentiments, all of which have profound implications for Singaporeans and the broader real estate landscape.
HDB Resale Market: A Closer Look at the Numbers
The latest data from the HDB paints a clear picture of a market entering a more sustainable phase. The HDB Resale Price Index (RPI) remained largely unchanged at 203.6 in the fourth quarter of 2025, standing at 203.7 in the preceding quarter. This flat trajectory in Q4 2025 brings the full-year increase to 2.9 percent, considerably lower than the 9.7 percent recorded in 2024 and the 10.4 percent gains in 2022.
Beyond price movements, transaction volumes also saw a notable decline. Resale volume in the fourth quarter of 2025 dropped to 5,129 units, representing an 18.8 percent decrease year-on-year from 6,314 units in Q4 2024. This represents the lowest quarterly sales since Q2 2020. For the entire year of 2025, the total resale volume reached 26,042 units, a 9.8 percent decrease compared to the 28,876 units transacted in 2024. This marks the second consecutive quarter with a double-digit year-on-year percentage drop in quarterly resale volume and the last time annual resale volume decreased was in 2023, when it fell by 4.2 percent, less than half the current rate of decline.
While the overall market demonstrated moderation, certain segments continued to see strong demand. The number of million-dollar HDB resale flats surged by over 50 percent in 2025, with an estimated 1,594 units transacted at or above S$1 million, surpassing the 1,035 units sold in 2024. In Q4 2025 alone, there were 351 such transactions, albeit a slight decrease from 480 units in Q3 2025, with these premium flats changing hands at an average price of S$1.17 million. These properties are predominantly located in mature estates, where demand for spacious and well-located flats remains robust as private condominium prices continue to climb.
Factors Influencing the Slowdown
Several key drivers have contributed to the significant moderation in HDB resale prices:
- Increased Supply of Flats: The government’s consistent efforts to ramp up the supply of both Build-To-Order (BTO) flats and Sale of Balance Flats (SBF) have played a crucial role. In 2025, HDB launched a total of 19,723 BTO flats. Looking ahead, HDB plans to launch approximately 19,600 BTO flats across three sales exercises in February, June, and October 2026, including over 4,000 with waiting times under three years. The commitment to offer about 55,000 flats from 2025 to 2027 aims to meet strong housing demand and provide more options for homebuyers, thereby diverting demand from the resale market.
- “Bumper Crop” of MOP Flats: A substantial increase in the number of HDB flats reaching their Minimum Occupation Period (MOP) is expected to inject more inventory into the resale market. Approximately 13,500 flats are projected to fulfill their MOP in 2026, a significant increase from the 8,000 units in 2025. This surge in available resale units provides buyers with a wider selection and longer remaining leases, easing supply tightness.
- Property Cooling Measures: A series of targeted cooling measures implemented by the government over recent years has effectively curbed speculative activity and moderated price growth. Key measures include:
- In September 2022, a 15-month wait-out period was introduced for private residential property owners and ex-owners before they could purchase a non-subsidised HDB resale flat. Exceptions were made for seniors aged 55 and above moving to a 4-room or smaller resale flat.
- Concurrently, the Loan-to-Value (LTV) limit for HDB loans was reduced from 85 percent to 80 percent, and an interest rate floor of 3 percent was introduced for computing eligible HDB loan amounts.
- Further adjustments in August 2024 saw the LTV limit for HDB-granted loans lowered from 80 percent to 75 percent, aligning HDB’s lending policies more closely with private banks.
- Additional Buyer’s Stamp Duty (ABSD) and Buyer’s Stamp Duty (BSD) rates have also been revised, impacting overall property acquisition costs and influencing investment decisions across the Singapore real estate investment landscape.
- Rising Price Resistance: Prospective buyers have demonstrated increased price resistance, leading to longer closing times and a decline in transaction volume. This indicates a more discerning market where buyers are less willing to accept steep asking prices.
Impact on Singaporeans and the Broader Property Market
The moderation in HDB resale prices is a welcome development for many Singaporeans, particularly first-time homebuyers and those looking to upgrade within the public housing sector. Increased affordability and a wider selection of flats can ease the financial burden associated with homeownership. The significant supply of BTO flats and upcoming MOP units offers more choices, potentially reducing competition and managing expectations on price increments.
For those considering Singapore real estate investment, the HDB market’s rebalancing may influence overall property market sentiment. While private property prices continue to see growth, the cooling in the HDB sector could lead to a more measured approach from investors. The divergence in price trends between million-dollar HDB flats and the broader HDB market highlights sustained demand for prime, well-located properties, which could remain attractive for discerning buyers.
Outlook for Singapore’s HDB Sector
Property analysts anticipate that HDB resale prices will continue to experience modest growth in 2026. Forecasts generally project an increase of 2 to 4 percent, comparable to the 2.9 percent recorded in 2025, but significantly lower than the decade-long average of 5.1 percent from 2016 to 2025. Some projections suggest an even lower growth range of 0 to 2 percent.
The robust supply of BTO flats planned for 2026, coupled with the large number of MOP flats entering the resale market, is expected to maintain this moderated growth trajectory. Government policies continue to prioritize affordability and sustainability in public housing, with authorities prepared to further ramp up BTO supply beyond current targets if demand remains strong. These ongoing efforts are aimed at ensuring that public housing remains accessible and that price increases remain aligned with economic fundamentals and income growth, fostering a stable environment for homeownership in Singapore.
