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HDB Resale: Slower Growth Signals Affordability Concerns
Singapore’s Housing and Development Board (HDB) resale market is showing signs of moderation, impacting Singaporeans navigating the property landscape. Recent data indicates a slowdown in resale price growth, raising questions about affordability and the overall market dynamics. This article delves into the latest trends, analyzes the factors contributing to this shift, and explores the implications for potential homeowners and investors in Singapore.
Slowing Price Growth: A Trend in 2025
The HDB resale market has experienced a notable deceleration in price appreciation. In the third quarter of 2025, resale flat prices rose by a modest 0.4%, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of slowing growth [2, 7, 11]. This is the lowest quarter-on-quarter increase since the second quarter of 2020 [2, 7, 11]. This contrasts with the 0.9% increase recorded in the second quarter of 2025 [2, 21]. This moderation follows a period of rapid price increases, fueled by construction delays during the COVID-19 pandemic that constrained the supply of Build-To-Order (BTO) flats [2].
- Q3 2025: 0.4% increase
- Q2 2025: 0.9% increase
The HDB Resale Price Index (RPI) reached 203.7 in the third quarter of 2025, a slight increase from 202.9 in the previous quarter [7, 8]. While prices are still growing, the decelerating pace suggests a cooling of the market [7, 8].
Transaction Volumes Decline
Alongside the slower price growth, resale transaction volumes have also decreased. In the third quarter of 2025, 7,157 resale flats were sold, a 10.9% decrease compared to the 8,035 units sold in the same period in 2024 [2, 7, 11]. This decline in transaction volume suggests a cautious approach from buyers, potentially due to concerns about affordability or anticipation of new BTO launches [2, 7, 11].
However, ERA reported a 2.5% increase from the previous quarter, but a 17.5% decline year-on-year [8]. This seemingly contradicting information could be due to the different periods considered for the comparison and the timing of data collection. A possible explanation for the decreased resale transactions is that buyers are holding out for the final BTO exercise in October [8]. This bumper crop of 9,100 BTO units is likely to alleviate some of the demand for HDB resale flats [8].
Million-Dollar Flats on the Rise
Despite the overall slowdown, the number of million-dollar HDB resale transactions continues to climb. From January to September 2025, 1,243 flats were sold for at least S$1 million, surpassing the record of 1,035 transactions for the entire year of 2024 [2, 13]. In the third quarter of 2025 alone, there were 480 million-dollar flat transactions, up from 415 in the previous quarter [2, 21].
According to The Online Citizen, Singapore’s HDB resale market surged in September 2025, recording 172 million-dollar flat transactions—the highest ever in a single month [12]. Prices climbed 0.6%, reaching a record index of 209.7 [12].
These million-dollar flats are predominantly located in mature estates such as Toa Payoh, Bukit Merah, and Kallang/Whampoa [2, 21]. These centrally located towns offer attractive amenities and established infrastructure, commanding premium prices [2, 8, 21].
Factors Influencing the Market
Several factors contribute to the current trends in the HDB resale market:
- Increased BTO Supply: The government’s efforts to increase the supply of new BTO flats, including projects in desirable locations, are drawing some buyers away from the resale market [2, 7, 21]. HDB will launch over 9,000 BTO flats in October 2025 [7, 11].
- Economic Uncertainty: Concerns about Singapore’s moderating GDP growth and signs of softening labor demand are prompting households to exercise caution when making property purchase decisions [2, 7, 11].
- Government Measures: Cooling measures implemented by the authorities to manage demand and supply in the property market are also contributing to the moderation in resale price growth [2].
Impact on Singaporeans
The slowing growth in HDB resale prices has mixed implications for Singaporeans. For prospective buyers, it could signal improved affordability and a wider range of options. However, the continued rise in million-dollar flat transactions suggests that well-located properties remain highly competitive [2, 8, 21]. Existing homeowners may find that their flats are not appreciating as rapidly as before, potentially impacting their upgrading plans [2, 9, 18].
Looking Ahead
Analysts anticipate that HDB resale prices will remain relatively stable in the final quarter of 2025 [7]. The upcoming BTO launch in October is expected to further divert demand from the resale market [7, 17]. The government’s commitment to launching 55,000 BTO units from 2025 to 2027 is expected to moderate HDB resale prices further [2].
Households should continue to exercise prudence when purchasing properties and taking on mortgage loans, given the uncertain macroeconomic outlook [2, 7, 11]. The Singapore government is expected to monitor the property market closely and adjust policies as necessary to promote a stable and sustainable market [22].
The Role of Property Cooling Measures
Since 2009, the Singapore government has implemented numerous property cooling measures to try and stabilize the real estate market [13, 19]. These measures include tighter loan-to-value ratios, increased Additional Buyer’s Stamp Duty (ABSD), and stricter loan rules [13, 19, 20]. While these measures aim to promote affordability, average prices of both private and HDB properties continue to reach new highs, suggesting that the cooling measures may have diminishing returns [13].
Mortgage Rates and Affordability
Mortgage rates play a crucial role in determining housing affordability. As of October 1, 2025, the 3-Month Compounded SORA has fallen to approximately 1.45% per annum, down from 3.02% at the beginning of the year [29]. This decrease in interest rates could potentially improve affordability for homebuyers [3, 5, 23, 27, 29, 30].
However, uncertainty remains regarding future interest rate movements [9]. While some analysts predict that fixed home loan rates could fall below 2% by the end of 2025, others caution against expecting dramatic rate cuts [27, 30].
HDB as a Singapore Real Estate Investment
Even with the recent slowing of price growth, HDB flats remain a vital asset for Singaporeans. For many, it is still their first step into Singapore real estate investment and wealth creation [3]. The government continues to manage supply and demand to ensure Singaporeans have access to affordable housing [3].
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